Domino Actions Restart a Possible Cold War, EU Goes After Belarus
Posted on 02/27/2022
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in late 1991, the Western countries expanded its NATO membership to include former soviet states. The secession of the Baltic states was recognized in September 1991. The Belovezh Accords were arbitrarily signed on December 8, 1991 by President Boris Yeltsin of the Russian SFSR, President Kravchuk of Ukraine, and Chairman Shushkevich of Belarus, recognizing each other’s independence and creating the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) instead of the Soviet Union. Kazakhstan was the last nation to leave the Union, proclaiming independence on December 16, 1991. In March 2004, Lithuania joined NATO and on May 1, 2004, it became a fully-fledged member of the European Union. The checkerboard of former soviet republics joining NATO and the EU, exerted pressure on Russia to take a harder stance on its neighbors.
The U.S. and EU funding of movements in the Ukraine was the last straw for Russian President Vladimir Putin. In late 2013, civil unrest spread in the Ukraine, especially in Kyiv. These protests were catalyzed by the Ukrainian government’s decision to suspend the signing of the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement, instead choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union. The protests were supported by the West and called for the resignation of the President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, and the Second Azarov Government.
Fast-forward, after the Beijing Olympics, Putin made the gamble to seize Ukraine by declaring “protecting” the Eastern republics of Ukraine. Russian forces began incursions into Ukraine from nearly all sides. The U.S., U.K., the European Union increased sanctions against more Russian entities.
Belarus
Belarus borders Russia and remains under influence from is nuclear-powered neighbor. The EU adopted a fifth package of sanctions against Belarus in December 2021. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko casts his ballot at the referendum on the amendments and additions to the constitution of Belarus, in Minsk. Belarus is holding a referendum to adopt a new constitution that would ditch its non-nuclear status. The referendum would allow Belarus to hold nuclear weapons on its ground for the first time after they gave them up after the fall of the Soviet Union.
“If you (the West) transfer nuclear weapons to Poland or Lithuania, to our borders, then I will turn to Putin to return the nuclear weapons that I gave away without any conditions,” Lukashenko said to media.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has warned the West against imposing tough sanctions on Moscow, saying that such measures could push Russia into a “third world war.”
“Now there is a lot of talk against the banking sector. Gas, oil, SWIFT. It’s worse than war. This is pushing Russia into a third world war,” Lukashenko said on Sunday, as quoted by local media.
Belarus has been used as a springboard for Russian forces to invade Ukraine.
“For the first time ever, the European Union will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and other equipment to a country that is under attack,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. She said the European Union would close its airspace to Russian aircraft. The EU will ban Russian state-owned television network Russia Today and news agency Sputnik. Google (part of Alphabet) subsidiary YouTube and Facebook parent company Meta demonetized RT’s accounts, while Google blocked downloads of RT’s app on Ukrainian territory earlier.
The European Union will impose a ban on Belarus for imports of products from mineral fuels to tobacco, wood and timber, cement, iron, and steel.
Economic Warfare and Current Actions
Putin puts Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert. This is in a dramatic escalation of tensions with the West. Germany and the EU have agreed to fund weapons for Ukraine, joining the U.S. and U.K. The EU aims to spend 450 million euros of EU funds on weapons for Ukraine.
Turkey is moving to restrict the access of Russian warships to the Black Sea over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Turkey will implement all provisions of Montreux Convention. Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, which regulates the Black Sea straits, Turkey is able to close the straits for military vessels of any nations at a formal state of war, as well as when it feels itself threatened with an imminent war.