Special Briefing: Top 10 Risks for Sovereign Wealth Funds in 2020
Posted on 12/20/2019
Every new year presents risks and opportunities for institutional investors such as sovereign wealth funds and large public pensions. The SWFI Global Asset Owner Survey, which completed its noteworthy 10th survey, highlighted risks that asset owners are concerned about. Sovereign wealth funds are not monolithic and many are invested in a wide-range of assets – from parking meters to electric vehicle companies like Lucid Motors.
Will the global economic and financial landscape in 2020 become increasingly grim and complicated for sovereign investors? Here is the ranking from top to bottom for 2020, compiled by SWFI researchers.
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#4. Prolonged Trade War Could Impact SWF Chinese Investment
Asian sovereign wealth funds like GIC Private Limited and Temasek Holdings are betting on both fronts: the United States and China. However, mainland Chinese investments are at risk, if trade and national security tensions continue to boil between the two world superpowers. Alpha can be harvested in trade wars, but overall, Chinese companies need to find alternative markets to sell their goods. The impact on the trade war in Asian economies works itself through the disruption of supply chains, and China has room to lose more high-tech manufacturing at an accelerated pace to companies in Southeast Asia.
China is also mired in political issues with regard to the status of Hong Kong, as the 2019 protests and recent election outcomes have shown the limits and patience of Beijing. Sovereign funds exposed to Chinese real estate could be holding the bag, which is why a number of sovereign funds have tried to de-risk, or sell-off real estate into REITs, other investor platforms, or recycle the assets in disparate portfolios.